July 28, 2015
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VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 49.61% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 18.41% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Nine sectors are calculated to be overvalued--with three at or near double digits.
--#SELL #FAIL #FINEPRINT
ValuEngine SELL Twitter Down Sharply
Twitter (TWTR) is a public, real-time, global platform where any user can create a Tweet and any user can follow other users. The platform is unique in its simplicity: Tweets are limited to 140 characters of text. This constraint makes it easy for anyone to quickly create, distribute and discover content that is consistent across our platform and optimized for mobile devices. As a result, Tweets drive a high velocity of information exchange that makes Twitter uniquely live.
Twitter reported earnings yesterday, and the initial reaction was positive.
While the company is still not profitable, losses were pared to $137 million or $0.21/share versus last year's loss of $145 million. They also made the claim that they expect to turn a profit "soon," in 2018! Running some "magic" on the numbers-- once certain expenses were excluded, the company claimed earnings of $0.07/share. That was actually a beat--sort of--as analysts had expected a figure of only $0.04/share.
On that initial news, the stock had a little pop yesterday. However, after hours, once investors had a chance to digest the news and dig down into the earnings data, things quickly soured and the stock began to nose dive. Critical for a social media company like Twitter is the strength of the its user base. And here we see a problem. The company is NOT growing fast enough to provide the eyeballs needed to make money from advertising. The company added only @eight million "monthly active users" (MAU) in this quarter for a total of 312 million MAU.
That slow growth is a bad sign--and that bad sign was even noted by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey on the earnings call when he said “This is unacceptable and we’re not happy about it." Twitter is badly lagging Facebook, which has @ 1.4 billion MAUs. In addition, the growth for Twitter is slowing rather than picking up. This also does not bode well for the company.
VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: While many analysts rate the stock a buy and have price targets in the $50/share range, ValuEngine continues its SELL recommendation. We downgraded this stock to SELL back at the end of April. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that TWITTER INC has the probability to UNDERPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits UNATTRACTIVE Price Sales Ratio and Book Market Ratio.
Below is today's more extensive data on TWTR:
ValuEngine Forecast |
|
Target
Price* |
Expected
Return |
1-Month |
36.37 |
-0.47% |
3-Month |
36.12 |
-1.15% |
6-Month |
35.86 |
-1.87% |
1-Year |
34.49 |
-5.61% |
2-Year |
38.47 |
5.27% |
3-Year |
36.44 |
-0.27% |
Valuation & Rankings |
Valuation |
n/a |
|
n/a |
1-M Forecast Return |
-0.47% |
1-M Forecast Return Rank |
19 |
12-M Return |
-3.66% |
|
54 |
Sharpe Ratio |
-0.14 |
|
34 |
5-Y Avg Annual Return |
-8.70% |
5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank |
30 |
Volatility |
61.99% |
|
23 |
Expected EPS Growth |
2.33% |
|
29 |
Market Cap (billions) |
23.18 |
Size Rank |
95 |
Trailing P/E Ratio |
n/a |
|
23 |
Forward P/E Ratio |
n/a |
Forward P/E Ratio Rank |
n/a |
PEG Ratio |
18.27 |
PEG Ratio Rank |
1 |
Price/Sales |
14.60 |
|
8 |
Market/Book |
8.04 |
|
16 |
Beta |
0.69 |
Beta Rank |
65 |
Alpha |
-0.16 |
Alpha Rank |
39 |
As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,
we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports
Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on TWTR HERE.
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The ValuEngine View Newsletter is the product of a sophisticated stock valuation model that was first developed by ValuEngine's academic research team. It utilizes a three factor approach: fundamental variables such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. A total of eleven additional firm specific variables are also used. In addition, the portoflio uses top picks from our Forecast Model. In essence, the portfolio is constructed with the best picks from our main propiretary models
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VE View vs. S&P 500 Index Past Five Years |
|
VE View |
S&P 500 |
Ann Return |
19.75% |
14.13% |
Ann Volatility |
21.06% |
11.13% |
Sharpe Ratio |
0.94 |
1.27 |
Sortino Ratio |
1.55 |
1.56 |
Max Drawdown |
-34.94% |
-11.14% |
The ValuEngine View Newsletter is derived from the ValuEngine Aggressive and Diversified Growth BenchmarkPortfolio Strategies. These strategies are the product of ValuEngine's academic research team and combine cutting-edge financial analysis and portfolio construction techniques with real-world Wall St. know how.
CLICK HERE to Subscribe to the ValuEngine View
The ValuEngine View Newsletter portfolio has 15 primary stock picks and five alternates and is re-balanced once each month. The ValuEngine View Newsletter is published near the middle of each calendar month. An equal amount of capital is allocated to each stock. The monthly returns are calculated from the closing prices on date of publication. The performance calculation does not include any transaction costs.
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe |
Stocks Undervalued |
50.39% |
Stocks Overvalued |
49.61% |
Stocks Undervalued by 20% |
21.1% |
Stocks Overvalued by 20% |
18.41% |
ValuEngine Sector Overview
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.61% |
-0.49% |
15.40% |
18.90% overvalued |
16.62% |
30.67 |
|
1.33% |
-1.73% |
3.94% |
13.11% overvalued |
-2.32% |
19.97 |
|
0.76% |
-2.04% |
1.16% |
9.11% overvalued |
-0.59% |
22.42 |
|
0.38% |
-3.85% |
-1.46% |
5.32% overvalued |
-5.61% |
25.01 |
|
0.41% |
-2.49% |
5.63% |
5.11% overvalued |
-1.43% |
28.39 |
|
0.51% |
-2.96% |
2.04% |
4.15% overvalued |
-3.57% |
23.98 |
|
0.29% |
-5.15% |
-1.00% |
3.52% overvalued |
-1.72% |
29.47 |
|
0.20% |
-1.55% |
1.30% |
3.39% overvalued |
-1.25% |
17.39 |
|
0.43% |
-3.30% |
-2.35% |
3.05% overvalued |
2.94% |
25.57 |
|
0.26% |
-2.89% |
-3.21% |
1.21% undervalued |
-7.64% |
20.35 |
|
1.08% |
-2.68% |
-4.55% |
1.95% undervalued |
-4.29% |
17.76 |
|
0.64% |
-4.19% |
-2.46% |
3.22% undervalued |
-11.69% |
16.95 |
|
1.01% |
-2.69% |
-0.47% |
3.76% undervalued |
-0.92% |
23.83 |
|
0.52% |
-6.54% |
-3.10% |
6.94% undervalued |
-9.49% |
18.92 |
|
2.25% |
-12.62% |
-13.28% |
15.28% undervalued |
-46.06% |
21.82 |
|
1.54% |
-10.76% |
-12.06% |
19.81% undervalued |
-36.63% |
22.65 |
ValuEngine.com Products and Services
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